Projects. Total Cost of Ownership: Annexation.
Cracking the numbers for Russia's attempt to annex Ukraine is mind-blowing.
The "Puto-crat" and his "Oily-garchs" are totally bananas but also not without motive. Strong reasons exist for kicking off this Crimea War (Go back to 1853 for the first one.)
Key: B = Billion. $ = USD
Motive: annexation offers "the Puto-crat" control of energy and food supply to about 70% of the world population and a possible 15% uplift in exports. A big hook. Disrupting supply chains, (still weakened post Covid), controlling Black Sea ports and destabilizing governments - a trick from the USSR playbook - makes him a global influencer.
Ukraine exports $15B - $20B in seeds, grains and similar foodstuffs to countries in Europe, Asia, and Africa. Also, Russia exports ca. $112B in fuel to Europe (42%), China (14%), rest of World (14%). Seeds and grains by comparison around $1.5B.
(Context: Russian total exports in 2020 reached $330B; Ukraine $52B.)
Delivery: The reported time of two weeks to close out is ambitious by any stretch of imagination. Like any project, costs spiral once we cross the start line:
Sunk costs up to Oct 2022:
Tanks $3.9B
Helicopters $4.9B
Planes $6.1B
Smart Weapons $29B
Fuel $2.4B
Kerch Bridge $2.7B (an incidental cost ...)
Moskva Ship $750M (chump change ...)
Total $49B + change
Plus $119B in estimated daily operating costs ($500M per day for 240 days).
Current running total $168B
Projecting forward 90 days, add another $49B which brings us to $217B
(Equivalent to 66% of all Russian exports for 2020.)
That's a lot of cheddar.
Total madness, and Putin is hooked on "sunk cost fallacy."
I bet Abramovich wishes he was back running Chelsea.
People. The Rectitude of the Righteous
Modern networking is often conducted in a digital domain. A new form of network entertainment and I'm loving it. The LinkedIn arena is an engaging network fostering an open mind with eclectic relationships.
That said, righteous indignation seems prolific. I did not realize there were so many preachers in the world.
Righteous folks make me cautious. Their undercurrent is an oft negative spin; the fortunes of the righteous include a world of absolutes, where a handful of data points fan the flames of voracious viewpoints.
I am not sure what the tipping point is between determination and righteousness. I am fairly sure that righteousness creates division; illustrated on the world stage in Russia, Iran and China.
It is not just countries that create personality cults. The force of personality in business, sports and military folks is evident; environments where controlled eco-systems create chambers of evolving autocrats unfulfilled by dialogue.
The story of Worcester Rugby, a Premiership club, with a birth date of 1871 now bankrupted tells a tale. “[The] business plan… seemed to consist of: borrow as much of other people’s money as we can, spend it and then try to find another mug to lend us more.”
The owners said: “We are thankful to those supporters who turned up ... but sorry that there were not more, nor enough of you ... to help make the club financially viable despite the significant personal funds we put into the club.”
It takes large scoops of courage and stubbornness to achieve anything. These are two facets of a determined rationale, and it is ok to be sure you are right.
When you start to double down on your position, then stubborn exceeds the courage to be flawed, or wrong. Righteousness rises.
Digital networking is here to stay. So are the righteous and they are entertaining.
Enjoy the show and remember: if everyone is thinking the same thing, then someone isn't thinking.
Persevering.
Theo Bennett. Virtutis.
Writing a book is challenging. Completion is the achievement. Readers define performance.
Theo Bennett, a newly published author has embraced his vocation with the "Virtutis" trilogy - the story of a man in the legions of the Roman Empire.
The book is a Russian doll of reflected realities, and Theo's own life mimics some aspects of "the Warrior Code" by which his main character exists.
Theo has moved to an island, a creative isolation, where he practices a spartan existence with daily bouts of jiu-jitsu and writing.
Virtutis, in contrast, is an anti-hero character, required by his organization to fight and engage in bloody business, then reconcile that with normal life.
We discussed Theo's novel and the rationale for writing, in a podcast (see below).
A rugby coach and recruiter of modern warriors, Theo is also the principal of TechForce, a placement agency for military talent.
The combined influences of coaching and recruiting fueled his urge for greater awareness of mental health and PTSD issues through fictional writing.
Why is this important?
The thing with mental health issues is they are a forever condition. Awareness goes back as far as the Crimean War (1853 - 1856). The forever wars in Afghanistan, and now the Ukraine have roots back to the "Great Game" of the 19th Century.
The corporate and social media worlds buzz with awareness; when the buzz fades the root causes will not be gone anytime soon.
The old adage "Sī vīs pācem, parā bellum" - "if you want peace, prepare for war" - is as relevant today as it was back in the 4th or 5th century.
Read Virtutis, a gritty tale embedded in human realities and frailties: Virtutis: Volume One: Bennett, Theo: 9798986909721: Amazon.com: Books
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